A Shift in Types of Hayes Properties Purchased Over the Last Two Years

The Hayes property landscape is constantly evolving, shaped by societal, economic and cultural factors.

The type of properties people have bought in the last few years since Lockdown One has undergone some notable changes, reflecting shifting preferences and lifestyle choices.

This article explores the transformations in property purchasing trends over the last two years, compared to the long-term almost three-decade average, with a focus on Hayes detached houses, semi-detached houses, terraced houses and apartments.

Hayes Detached Houses: A Shift Towards Modernity

Detached houses, long considered the epitome of homeownership, have witnessed a transformation in Hayes buyer preferences. While they still hold significant appeal, particularly for Hayes families seeking privacy and ample space, the demand for Hayes detached properties in the last couple of years has decreased, when compared to the previous average of the last three decades. This shift started before lockdown and can be attributed to several factors, including changing demographics, the way people live, varying land costs and evolving lifestyles that prioritise convenience and urban living.

Between 1995 and 2020, 781 detached homes sold in the Hayes area,

representing 3.0% of all the property sales in those 26 years.

In the last two years (2021 & 2022), 40 detached homes sold in the Hayes area, representing 2.7% of all the property sales in those 2 years, a proportional drop of 9.5%.

Hayes Semi-Detached Houses: Balancing Space and Affordability

Hayes semi-detached houses have maintained a relatively stable position in the property market over the past three decades, striking a balance between the space offered by detached houses and the affordability of terraced houses. While their popularity has seen minor fluctuations, their appeal to both Hayes families and young professionals looking for more spacious living arrangements remains consistent.

In recent years, there has been a noticeable increase in demand for well-presented mature Hayes extended semi-detached houses as homeowners increasingly seek larger properties that accommodate work-from-home setups and additional living spaces for multi-generational living. This trend suggests a growing emphasis on both comfort and adaptability within the modern Hayes home.

Between 1995 and 2020, 10,185 semi-detached homes sold in the Hayes area, representing 39.0% of all the property sales in those 26 years.

In the last two years (2021 & 2022), 562 semi-detached homes sold in the Hayes area, representing 38.0% of all the property sales in those 2 years, a proportional drop of 2.5%.

Hayes Terraced Houses: Embracing Urban Living

Nationally terraced houses have witnessed a resurgence in popularity with many new home builders utilising the modern ‘town house’ in a three-storey format. These houses in modern suburban areas provide a contemporary take on this traditional property type, attracting younger buyers looking for a low-maintenance lifestyle without sacrificing space (as they are built over three floors).

Then we have the Victorian terraced home which offers a blend of affordability, convenience and a sense of community tracing its history back over 100+ years. Young professionals, couples and small families are attracted to the charm and character of these properties, the generous square footage and close to the town centre location, often means the need for a car is reduced.

Between 1995 and 2020, 8,136 terraced homes sold in the Hayes area,

representing 31.1% of all the property sales in those 26 years.

In the last two years (2021 & 2022), 416 terraced homes sold in the Hayes area, representing 28.1% of all the property sales in those 2 years, a proportional decrease of 9.6%.

Hayes Apartments: The Rise of Vertical Living

Perhaps the most significant transformation in property type preferences over the past three decades can be observed in the increased popularity of apartments in the UK. Rapidly rising land costs and a growing desire for low-maintenance living have propelled the demand for apartment living to new heights.

Apartments offer a range of benefits, including affordability, security, access to amenities and a lock-and-leave lifestyle. Millennials and young professionals are drawn to the convenience and vibrant urban environments that apartments often provide. Additionally, the growing focus on sustainable living and reduced carbon footprints has further fuelled the demand for high-density housing options. Also, the issue of cladding which has become a great worry is hopefully on its way to being sorted.

Between 1995 and 2020, 7,041 apartments sold in the Hayes area,

representing 26.9% of all the property sales in those 26 years.

In the last two years (2021 & 2022), 461 apartments sold in the Hayes area, representing 31.2% of all the property sales in those 2 years, a proportional increase of 15.7%.

This is particularly interesting when we compare the Hayes stats to the national picture. Detached houses have seen an increase in demand from 34% of sales a decade ago to 39% last year, semi-detached houses have maintained their appeal and increased from 26% to 28% in the last decade. Terraced houses have witnessed a drop from 26% a decade ago to 21% last year and finally apartments have slightly increased from 11% to 12%.

The property preferences in Hayes have experienced notable shifts over the past two years compared to the long-term average of the last three decades. As Hayes’s property landscape continues to evolve, it is crucial to analyse these shifting preferences to understand the needs and desires of potential Hayes homeowners (and tenants).

Of course, detached houses remain a peak of home ownership, yet as the Hayes market is adapting to cater to changing demographics, urbanisation and evolving lifestyles, this might start to change in the coming decade.

By recognising and responding to these trends, homeowners, buy-to-let landlords and planners and developers can ensure that Hayes’s property market continues to thrive and meet the demands of the future.

The Renters’ Reform Bill is set to be published and presented in Parliament in the coming week, according to Housing Secretary Michael Gove. 

Gove stated in an interview with Sky News that the new legislation will alter the dynamics between landlords and tenant.

This will provide tenants with enhanced protection against indiscriminate rent increases, protection against sub-standard rental properties and ‘no fault’ evictions. For landlords, it will give them greater powers to evict tenants who are anti-social or with arrears.

The Bill is expected to encompass a broad range of reforms, such as 

1. the elimination of ‘no fault’ Section 21 eviction powers for landlords

2. a potential strengthening of Section 8 eviction powers

3. the likely introduction of a mandatory landlord register

4. tenants will probably have to give more notice to leave their property

5. and the implementation of a Decent Homes Standard for private housing like the one in place for social housing providers.

The Bill was initially proposed in 2019, and the Government has faced substantial criticism from activist groups for the delayed introduction to Parliament. 

The specific details within the Bill will clarify which measures can be promptly enacted into law and which will require primary legislation, a process that typically takes up to a year to complete in Parliament.

I have spoken about this new legislation an number of times in my articles on the Hayes Property Blog.

I do not believe most Hayes landlords have much to concern themselves with about this new proposed legislation. This legislation is designed to hurt the small minority of bad landlords, with sub-standard homes, who treat their tenants without care or consideration or ride roughshod over the existing 170+ laws and regulations landlords (and their agents) need to adhere to.

If you have any questions about this, do not hesitate to call me/us on 020 8573 4663.

Is now a good time to buy, or should people wait?

As we go into the second quarter of 2023, there is significant uncertainty in the UK economy, leading to uncertainty in the property market.

The number one issue is the fight against inflation and the cost-of-living crisis. The Bank of England is working hard to decrease inflation, and hopefully, in summer, we should see British inflation coming down. From that, we should expect interest rates to come down later in the year (and that is what the money markets believe with the 5-year swap rates).

This has driven mortgage pricing to the same levels seen the week before Liz Truss’ budget in September 2022. This will make homes more affordable because the mortgage payments would be lower.

Then there is the issue of house prices. Will they crash?

Later in the article, I will explain why 2023 differs entirely from 2008 (the last property market crash).

Yet it cannot be denied that the house prices achieved for Hayes homes today are lower than that completed in 2022.

The Land Registry states Hayes house prices

are 1.5% lower than three months ago.

Yet the devil is always in the detail. When the Land Registry reports on house prices from a particular month, it is actually from sales agreed six to nine months ago (because it takes on average four to five months from sale agreed to legal completion, then the solicitors have another two/three months to send the house paid data to the Land Registry).

That means the above reduction in Hayes house prices is really from the sales agreed upon in the late summer of 2022.

Looking at what properties have been selling for this autumn and winter in Hayes, there are still a few percentage points in the pipeline – yet, as I discussed a few weeks ago when I was looking at £/sq. ft on sales agreed in February (not completed sales like the Land Registry), it is minor stuff.

Why do people buy a property?

Life events often drive someone to buy (or sell) a home. Every potential home buyer should ask themselves these two questions if they are considering a purchase.

1. Am I in a stable financial position? Do I have a deposit and enough savings (or access to them via, say, family) should an unforeseen disruption occur in my life?

• Do I plan to be in this neighbourhood of Hayes for at least the next five years?

If you answer yes to both questions, then buying now makes sense. But if the answer is no to either of these two questions, consider waiting until both answers are yes.

Being in the Hayes property market for as long as I have, the one thing I have learned, both personally and dealing with many people moving home in Hayes over the years, is this.

The time to buy is when your ‘life events’ merit purchasing a home.

Note I say home and not a house. A house is a physical structure, whilst a home is a feeling. Don’t lose sight of the real reason for your endeavour – to build a home for yourself and those you care about.

Of course, Hayes house prices may fluctuate up or down in a 12 to 24-month period, but if you plan to have a minimum of at least five years in your new home, there are clear benefits to buying and owning a Hayes home.

Many times, so many people get caught out trying to ‘time the market’. Instead of trying to ‘time the market’, the vital thing is

‘time in the market’.

Over time, home ownership always wins over renting.

I appreciate over the past few years many people have found it nigh on impossible to buy a home. In 2021/2, queues were outside open houses, multiple offers to one place, rocketing house prices, and limited homes for sale.

Yet, that has now changed. There is an increasing number of Hayes properties on the market.

In September 2022, there were 314 properties for sale in Hayes; today, it is 383 properties.

Also, house prices achieved today are slightly lower than last year. That was to be expected as the ‘inflated’ Hayes house prices achieved in 2022 (because of the queues outside open houses, multiple offers to one place, rocketing house prices, and limited homes for sale etc.) aren’t being achieved today.

That means many Hayes people who couldn’t buy a home over the past couple of years are finding the market much more accommodating now.

What is the property market outlook for the rest of this year and the future?

Some people are trying to compare the current 2023 UK property market with the 2008 property market, yet there are significant differences between the two years.

Difference #1 is there is a massive amount of equity in homes today compared to 2008 (£189,500 today vs £135,900 in 2007).

Difference #2 was the stock levels of properties for sale.

The number of properties for sale in Hayes jumped from

330 in early 2007 to 561 in late 2007.

Even though there has been an increase in properties for sale in Hayes over the last six months (as mentioned in the article earlier), it has yet to be on the scale of the jump in 2007. This oversupply of the property market was a significant cause of house prices dropping in Hayes in 2008.

Difference #3 is there is a lot less unemployment in the economy today than in 2008 (3.2% today vs 5.6% in 2008).

Difference #4 is that most people (87%+) are on fixed-rate mortgages compared to 56% in 2008, so the increase in interest rates is not so much an issue compared to the run-up to the Credit Crunch in 2008.

There are other differences, but I want to avoid this turning into War and Peace!

Next, you must remember that in Hayes it isn’t just ‘one property market’.

There are ‘micro’ property markets within the whole Hayes property market.

There is still an undersupply of certain types of Hayes properties, meaning in those ‘micro’ property markets, supply can only partially satisfy the number of buyers wanting to buy a home, meaning house prices in those sections are holding up.

Yet on the other side of the coin, there is an oversupply of some other Hayes properties. Some of the increase in the overall number of properties on the market comes from overpriced Hayes homes in the ‘oversupplied’ micro property market.

If you want to know which ‘micro’ property market you are potentially selling in and potentially buying in (i.e., whether they are in an under or over-supplied ‘micro’ Hayes property market, drop me a line or send me a DM.

These are my thoughts, do let me know yours in the comments.

The property market is one of the most important economic indicators, as it can significantly impact the prosperity of both the local and national economy.

Recently, new data from the Census 2021 has become available that sheds light on seldom discussed areas of property, such as the types of properties Hayes has, together with how we live in and use our homes.

This data could be of interest to all Hayes people. However, it should be fascinating to Hayes homeowners and landlords, as it can help them make informed future decisions about buying, selling, and renting property.

Furthermore, comparing the data to the national statistics can provide a broader perspective and a better understanding of how we live in our homes in Hayes.

In this report, I will analyse seven measurements from the new Census data to assess the town’s housing stock and provide valuable insights for potential buyers and sellers.

The seven metrics I have selected provide essential information about the town’s demographics, housing types, and tenure.

1. Population and households of Hayes.

Knowing the population of a town is essential for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, it helps us understand the demographic makeup of Hayes. This information is crucial for local authority officials and businesses as they decide where to allocate resources and how to serve the community’s needs (like whether we need to build more new homes, for example).

Looking at demographics allows for better long-term planning and development (and for savvy buy-to-let Hayes investors to spot opportunities years in advance). Additionally, population data can help identify trends and changes in the community over time (I will revisit this in future articles where I will discuss the growth of Hayes over the last few decades and what that means for the property market and long-term house prices). Finally, having accurate population figures is necessary for allocating government funding and resources, making it critical for our town’s overall health and well-being.

The population of Hayes currently stands at

90,100 in 28,800 households.

2. The age profile of the people who live in Hayes.

The age profile of a town’s population provides valuable insights into the local property market. For example, suppose the town has a large population of retirees. In that case, it is more likely to have a higher demand for bungalows or sheltered accommodation. In comparison, a town with a large student population may have more demand for shared accommodation. Knowing the age profile of the town’s population is crucial for targeting the right buyers and understanding the potential market for different types of properties.

10.1% of Hayes’s population is 65 years and over,

compared to the national average of 18.4%.

Again, I will delve into this in more detail in my articles on the Hayes property market in the coming months.

3. Hayes household composition – one-person households vs family households.

Understanding household composition is crucial for predicting the demand for different properties. For example, if the town has a large population of single people, there may be more demand for one-bedroom apartments or studios. However, if the town has many families, there may be more demand for three or four-bedroom houses and schools.

20.2% of Hayes households are one-person households (compared to 30.2% nationally), and 63.2% of Hayes households are single-family households (compared to 63.0% nationally).

The remainder is made up of shared accommodation etc.

4. Hayes accommodation types – house or apartment.

Knowing the accommodation type is critical in understanding the local property market’s demand and supply. For example, if the town has many apartments, it may indicate that the town has a higher demand for properties with lower maintenance costs or land is too expensive to build houses on. Conversely, if the town has a higher than the national (or regional) average number of houses, it may indicate that it has more families looking for larger properties.

66.3% of the homes in Hayes are houses.

(Compared to the national average of 77.9%).

5. Number of bedrooms in Hayes.

The number of bedrooms is another crucial factor that affects the local property market. Knowing the average number of bedrooms in the town can help predict the demand for different property types. For example, if the town has many four or five-bedroom properties, it has more affluent buyers looking for larger properties.

• 16.4% of Hayes homes are one-bed households (11.4% nationally)
• 24.9% of Hayes homes are two-bed households (27.1% nationally)
• 39.5% of Hayes homes are three-bed households (40.4% nationally)
• 14.7% of Hayes homes are four or more-bed households (21.1% nationally)

• Occupancy rating for Hayes bedrooms – whether a property is under-occupied or overcrowded.

Knowing the occupancy rating for bedrooms is critical in understanding the local property market’s demand and supply. For example, if the town has many under-occupied properties, it could indicate people living in homes too big for their daily needs.

16.4% of Hayes homes with two or more spare bedrooms

(Compared to the national average of 42.7%).

6. Tenure of Hayes households – whether owned outright, owned with a mortgage, social housing or privately rented.

Understanding households’ tenure is essential in understanding the local property market’s demand and supply. For example, if the town has a high number of households in social housing, it may indicate that there is less demand for private rental properties. Conversely, if the town has an increased number of households owning properties outright, it usually suggests that there are more older homeowners (compared to younger homeowners)

• 19.7% of Hayes households own their home without a mortgage (compared to 32.8% nationally)
• 28.0% of Hayes households own their home with a mortgage (compared to 29.7% nationally)
• 20.0% of Hayes households live in social housing (compared to 17.1% nationally)
• 32.4% of Hayes households live in private rented accommodation (compared to 20.4% nationally)

So, what is all this telling us?

The seven metrics discussed in this article on Hayes provide valuable insights into the town’s demographics and the future of Hayes’s property market’s demand and supply.

As a Hayes estate agent, having a deep understanding of these metrics can help me better target potential buyers, predict the demand for different types of properties, and provide valuable insights and advice to Hayes house sellers, buyers and buy-to-let landlords.

If you are considering moving home in 2023 and want to know how this data will affect your buying or selling decisions, please do not hesitate to contact me for a personalised no-obligation no-cost consultation.

I am here to help you make informed decisions and find your dream property in this thriving town of Hayes.

As the British and Hayes property market navigates the ongoing economic turmoil, many Hayes homeowners and landlords may feel uncertain about the future.

However, up-to-date data suggests that the 2023 property crash predicted by the many newspapers and the usual clickbait doom-mongers in the lead-up to Christmas on social media, may not be as bad as initially thought, and there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

According to property website Rightmove, the average asking price of a home for sale in the UK rose by just £14 in February.

While this might sound like cause for concern, asking prices remaining flat rather than falling could be seen as a positive sign for the year ahead. Remember that they are only what people are asking (not necessarily achieving).

So, what exactly is happening in the Hayes property market?

Well, it all starts with realistic pricing.

Thankfully, most Hayes sellers are heeding their estate agents’ advice and being more realistic on price, helping maintain market stability.

If you are realistic with pricing, the property should sell.

The time it takes to get a property to sale agreed upon has increased nationally from 21 days in the summer of 2022 to around 50 days in Q1 2023.

Additionally, despite the turbulent economic conditions, buyer demand is rising. Rightmove also reported in the national press that the number of people contacting estate agents has increased by 11% in the last two weeks compared to the same period in 2019.

The number of sales agreed upon has also rebounded.

Nationally, from 1^st January to the 19^th February 2023,

134,886 properties had been sold subject to contract in the UK.

Not a good figure when I compare it with the same year-to-date sale agreed figures from the last couple of years.

2022 – 173,607 properties sold stc

2021 – 193,607 properties sold stc

But the last couple of years have been extraordinary for the UK property market and should be taken with a pinch of salt in some respect. We must compare 2023 with more normal years, like 2017/18/19/20. This tells a different story.

2020 – 151,694 properties sold stc

2019 – 143,504 properties sold stc

2018 – 138,665 properties sold stc

2017 – 134,503 properties sold stc

The picture looks similar when we look closer to home in Hayes.

In Hayes (UB3), in the first seven weeks up to the 19^th February 2022, 76 properties sold subject to contract.

This year, from the exact 1^st January to the 19^th February timeline, 52 properties have sold stc, which is lower, yet in the same ballpark as 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Yet it is all terrific selling a house (subject to contract); it is still only sold subject to contract, meaning the sale could fall through (as it is not legally binding).

As an agent who likes to delve deeper into statistics, I considered the ‘net property sales’. (Net Property Sales being the gross number of properties sold that week less the sale fall throughs in the same week).

In the three months leading up to the Mini-Budget in September 2022, there was an average of 17,801 ‘net property sales’ per week in the UK. That dropped by 34.7% two months after the Autumn Mini-Budget to an average of 11,624 ‘net property sales’ per week in the UK.

In the last five weeks, that has rebounded to 17,050

‘net property sales’ per week.

And when you consider the average for the same five weeks in 2017/18/19 was 18,330 ‘net property sales’ per week, we are close to what many considered a normal market.

Improving market conditions has been supported by a reduction in average mortgage rates. Homebuyers taking out a five-year fixed-rate mortgage with a 15% deposit can expect a rate of 4.39% (correct at the time of writing with HSBC), down from an average of 6.1% in early October. This reduction in mortgage rates may have contributed to the recent increase in buyer demand.

These positive signs in the market have led some experts to suggest that a ‘softer landing’ for the UK property market than initially expected could be on the horizon.

The combination of sellers being more realistic on price and an improving picture of the number of agreed-upon sales suggests a more positive outlook for the property market.

I advise Hayes homeowners coming to market in the upcoming spring season to use their agent’s expertise and get the price right the first time to find the right buyer more quickly. If you do wish to chance a higher asking price, only do so for no more than two weeks. If you haven’t sold by then, take the agent’s advice and realign your asking price.

71 Hayes homeowners have realigned their

asking prices since 1^st January 2023.

While it’s true that some first-time buyers may still be priced out of their original plans and may need to look for a cheaper property, save a bigger deposit, or factor higher monthly mortgage repayments into their budgets, there is still cause for optimism.

There is still a considerable demand for buying property in Hayes – renting is becoming increasingly unattractive for many people as rents are increasing by double digits percentages.

It is important to remember that purchasing a property always involves a trade-off between what one desires and what is affordable, regardless of the market conditions. For example, while a four-bed detached house may be out of reach, a larger and older three-bed semi-detached property may be a more realistic option (and probably have similar square footage).

Hayes landlords looking to invest in buy-to-let homes – now may be a good time, as rising rents could offer attractive returns.

Of the 171 properties let in Hayes since the 1^st January 2023, the average rent achieved has been £1,483 per month. This is a significant drop in the number of properties let in the same first seven weeks of the years of 2017/18/19 and a massive increase in rents.

Finally, the newspapers will be full of news about house price drops in the coming months. All the indexes report house sales where the sale agreed price was offered nine to eleven months ago and completed (i.e. monies and keys handed over) three or four months ago. This peculiar time lag means the house price data is nearly a year old before publication.

So, if you decide to buy a home on that information, you are using old property data. In late 2021/early 2022, there were 30+ viewings per property, and people paid way over the asking price to secure a property. Now there is more ‘normality’ in the Hayes housing market; today’s prices are also more normal (at or slightly below the realistic asking price). So yes, the house price indexes will show a reduction in house prices. The newspapers will say house prices are crashing, yet when it is explained the way I have above … whilst it is not a newspaper clickbait title – it is the truth and it’s more of a return to more ‘normal house prices’.

So, prepare for clickbait newspaper headlines of a house price crash (because ‘bad news sells newspapers’ as the saying goes).

Also, prepare for the doom-mongers to quote the bad news of the earnings-to-house prices ratio at one of its highest levels ever.

Earnings-to-house price ratios are a poor measurement of health in the UK property market. Instead, I believe Nationwide’s measure of first-time buyer mortgage payments as a percentage of take-home pay is better (as it is actual pound notes out of actual pay packets).

The Nationwide measure of first-time buyer mortgage payments as a percentage of take-home pay has grown for first-time buyers from 30.4% in Q4 2021 to 39.4% in Q4 2022 … a massive rise! Yet mortgage interest rates have dropped since then (so that percentage will fall). Also, to give some context, let us not forget that percentage in 1989 was 48.4%.

Ultimately, Hayes homeowners and Hayes landlords should decide, based on their unique circumstances, rather than being swayed by newspaper headlines or general market trends. Anyone uncertain about the property market’s future should contact me for my opinion, advice and guidance.